ITALY REGIONS OVERVIEW

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REGIONS DATA TABLE

Rt

Italy regions $R_t$ (effective reproduction number in time $t$) calculated with Bayesian approach (Bettencourt & Ribeiro 2008 and Kevin Systrom 2020).

(read here for details)

ML High_50 Low_50
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 1.03 1.45 0.59
Basilicata 0.68 1.44 0.27
Calabria 1.13 1.61 0.62
Campania 1.10 1.33 0.86
Emilia-Romagna 1.09 1.34 0.84
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1.03 1.44 0.59
Lazio 0.97 1.21 0.73
Liguria 1.32 1.66 0.97
Lombardia 1.15 1.36 0.95
Marche 1.05 1.49 0.58
Molise 0.60 1.45 0.21
P.A. Bolzano 0.85 1.32 0.40
P.A. Trento 1.21 1.73 0.64
Piemonte 1.08 1.38 0.77
Puglia 1.23 1.55 0.90
Sardegna 1.14 1.45 0.82
Sicilia 0.87 1.21 0.51
Toscana 1.17 1.46 0.87
Umbria 1.12 1.53 0.68
Valle d'Aosta 0.98 1.89 0.34
Veneto 1.02 1.27 0.77
ML High_50 Low_50
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 1.117143 1.541429 0.658571
Basilicata 1.045714 1.731429 0.405714
Calabria 1.124286 1.604286 0.595714
Campania 1.340000 1.578571 1.097143
Emilia-Romagna 1.231429 1.482857 0.980000
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1.097143 1.510000 0.647143
Lazio 1.075714 1.311429 0.840000
Liguria 1.325714 1.680000 0.967143
Lombardia 1.245714 1.452857 1.040000
Marche 1.024286 1.465714 0.547143
Molise 0.595714 1.457143 0.210000
P.A. Bolzano 0.974286 1.441429 0.485714
P.A. Trento 1.267143 1.817143 0.662857
Piemonte 1.214286 1.520000 0.904286
Puglia 1.370000 1.701429 1.037143
Sardegna 1.327143 1.641429 1.014286
Sicilia 0.877143 1.215714 0.521429
Toscana 1.245714 1.541429 0.948571
Umbria 1.264286 1.692857 0.818571
Valle d'Aosta 0.847143 1.918571 0.285714
Veneto 1.071429 1.318571 0.825714

GROWTH

Read here for current method PDF.

deceduti

beta

mean sd hdi_0.5% hdi_99.5%
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 0.706 282.619 -481.503 482.195
Basilicata -4.481 281.843 -484.144 480.229
Calabria 0.780 280.392 -478.384 483.162
Campania 0.435 0.417 -0.695 1.645
Emilia-Romagna 1.818 0.416 0.725 3.041
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.408 280.008 -476.398 486.515
Lazio -1.633 0.262 -2.352 -0.898
Liguria -274.443 121.685 -486.934 -66.651
Lombardia -0.734 0.314 -1.653 0.094
Marche -1.794 280.991 -485.303 477.518
Molise 0.976 280.398 -477.176 486.951
P.A. Bolzano -0.601 280.507 -486.903 476.064
P.A. Trento -2.090 282.089 -479.820 484.740
Piemonte 0.526 0.303 -0.303 1.388
Puglia 3.782 0.868 1.870 6.669
Sardegna 3.979 281.175 -480.121 484.440
Sicilia 271.185 123.642 58.349 486.978
Toscana 2.466 0.498 1.107 3.919
Umbria 3.918 281.870 -486.412 477.227
Valle d'Aosta -0.317 281.093 -482.979 480.475
Veneto -0.281 0.365 -1.334 0.688

fitted

totale_casi

beta

mean sd hdi_0.5% hdi_99.5%
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo -0.129 0.145 -0.536 0.263
Basilicata -0.162 0.293 -0.985 0.625
Calabria 1.760 0.153 1.332 2.197
Campania 1.080 0.107 0.772 1.372
Emilia-Romagna 0.543 0.103 0.260 0.824
Friuli Venezia Giulia -0.612 0.111 -0.918 -0.302
Lazio -0.062 0.043 -0.182 0.054
Liguria 0.588 0.091 0.328 0.835
Lombardia 0.455 0.090 0.203 0.705
Marche 0.386 0.258 -0.317 1.092
Molise -0.306 0.252 -1.008 0.393
P.A. Bolzano -0.923 0.089 -1.166 -0.677
P.A. Trento 0.775 0.251 0.081 1.461
Piemonte 0.412 0.142 0.028 0.799
Puglia 0.712 0.099 0.447 0.985
Sardegna 0.210 0.103 -0.077 0.493
Sicilia -0.335 0.059 -0.497 -0.170
Toscana 0.324 0.125 -0.026 0.671
Umbria -0.207 0.081 -0.432 0.013
Valle d'Aosta 3.375 0.365 2.447 4.477
Veneto -0.404 0.050 -0.544 -0.268

fitted

Summary

Growths summary:

deceduti totale_casi
growth beta alpha growth beta alpha
Abruzzo None 0 0 lin -0.13 15.62
Basilicata None 0 0 lin -0.16 2.46
Calabria None 0 0 exp 1.76 11.23
Campania lin 0.43 0.46 exp 1.08 135.77
Emilia-Romagna exp 1.82 0.62 exp 0.54 111.31
Friuli Venezia Giulia None 0 0 dec -0.61 19.46
Lazio dec -1.63 0.54 lin -0.06 155.38
Liguria dec -274.44 0.15 exp 0.59 33.77
Lombardia lin -0.73 1.77 exp 0.46 211.77
Marche None 0 0 lin 0.39 14.69
Molise None 0 0 lin -0.31 1.92
P.A. Bolzano None 0 0 dec -0.92 10.54
P.A. Trento None 0 0 exp 0.78 7.00
Piemonte lin 0.53 0.31 exp 0.41 58.00
Puglia exp 3.78 0.15 exp 0.71 43.38
Sardegna None 0 0 lin 0.21 53.38
Sicilia exp 271.19 0.08 dec -0.34 39.38
Toscana exp 2.47 0.23 lin 0.32 74.85
Umbria None 0 0 lin -0.21 18.46
Valle d'Aosta None 0 0 exp 3.38 1.62
Veneto lin -0.28 1.77 dec -0.40 127.00
ERR None dec lin exp
deaths 0 11 2 4 4
cases 0 0 4 8 9

For cumulative total cases

  • 9 regions 42.86% are likely exponentially growing
  • 8 regions 38.10% are likely almost linearly growing
  • 4 regions 19.05% are likely exponentially decaying
  • 0 regions 0.00% are likely constant

For cumulative total deaths:

  • 4 regions 19.05% are likely exponentially growing
  • 4 regions 19.05% are likely almost linearly growing
  • 2 regions 9.52% are likely exponentially decaying
  • 11 regions 52.38% are likely constant

In 43% regions, cases are growing exponetially and in 19% the situation is likely solved or about to resolution (no growth or exponential decay).

On the other hand, in 62% regions deaths are not growing or decaying and 19% are showing an exponential growth of deaths.

Linearly growing regions (38% for cases and 19% for deaths) situation is not severe but likely not currently resolving.

FIRST ENTRY DATE: 2020-02-24T18:00:00
LAST  ENTRY DATE: 2020-09-02T17:00:00
COVERAGE: 190 days
CURRENT DATE IS: 2020-09-02 17:11:59

TOTAL CASES

DEATHS

RECOVERED

INFECTED

MORTALITY RATE

!!! PLEASE NOTE !!!

These rates are only useful for SIRD epidemiological model (read here for details) not to define COVID-19 actual rates.

RECOVERY RATE

OSPITALIZED DETAILS