ITALY REGIONS FORECAST (beta test)

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REGIONS DATA TABLE

FIRST ENTRY DATE: 2020-02-24T18:00:00
LAST  ENTRY DATE: 2020-06-06T17:00:00
COVERAGE: 102 days
CURRENT DATE IS: 2020-06-07 12:17:01

For each region, to perform curve fitting, we will guess initial parameters $p_0$ of gaussian curve

$$ f(t) = a \mathbf{e}^{ -(x - b)^2 / c^2 } $$

as

$$a_0 = \mathbf{P}_{87.5}(y_{>0})$$$$b_0 = \mathbf{i}_{\mathbf{max}}(y)$$$$c_0 = \frac{4}{\sqrt{2}} b_0$$

where $\mathbf{P}_{n}(a_{>0})$ is the $n^{th}$ percentile of array $a$, where $a_{i}>0$

$\mathbf{i}_{\mathbf{max}}(a)$ is the index of maximum element in $a = (a_0, a_1 .. a_n)$

and $y$ is the array of gathered rough data.

REGIONI:

Abruzzo

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=75.12, b0=33.00, c0=11.67
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=80.19 \pm 5.07$
$\displaystyle b=38.13 \pm 1.17$
$\displaystyle c=22.67 \pm 1.67$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=10.12, b0=44.00, c0=15.56
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=8.41 \pm 0.55$
$\displaystyle b=45.23 \pm 1.46$
$\displaystyle c=27.65 \pm 2.10$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=56.38, b0=91.00, c0=32.17
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=48.87 \pm 3.92$
$\displaystyle b=79.08 \pm 2.21$
$\displaystyle c=28.35 \pm 3.49$

Basilicata

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=15.00, b0=32.00, c0=11.31
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=17.34 \pm 1.37$
$\displaystyle b=31.75 \pm 0.68$
$\displaystyle c=10.54 \pm 0.96$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=2.00, b0=31.00, c0=10.96
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=1.06 \pm 0.13$
$\displaystyle b=41.03 \pm 1.38$
$\displaystyle c=14.00 \pm 1.95$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=11.00, b0=69.00, c0=24.40
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=8.15 \pm 0.75$
$\displaystyle b=70.22 \pm 2.03$
$\displaystyle c=26.50 \pm 3.08$

P.A. Bolzano

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=77.25, b0=47.00, c0=16.62
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=78.46 \pm 4.40$
$\displaystyle b=34.30 \pm 0.86$
$\displaystyle c=18.75 \pm 1.22$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=9.00, b0=36.00, c0=12.73
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=10.22 \pm 1.02$
$\displaystyle b=39.01 \pm 1.25$
$\displaystyle c=15.29 \pm 1.76$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=47.00, b0=59.00, c0=20.86
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=110.62 \pm 17.95$
$\displaystyle b=60.01 \pm 0.82$
$\displaystyle c=6.17 \pm 1.16$

Calabria

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=36.12, b0=31.00, c0=10.96
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=40.45 \pm 3.11$
$\displaystyle b=32.37 \pm 0.93$
$\displaystyle c=14.86 \pm 1.32$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=4.00, b0=40.00, c0=14.14
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=4.03 \pm 0.36$
$\displaystyle b=36.05 \pm 0.76$
$\displaystyle c=10.29 \pm 1.08$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=25.00, b0=82.00, c0=28.99
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=23.14 \pm 1.47$
$\displaystyle b=79.05 \pm 1.52$
$\displaystyle c=26.01 \pm 2.40$

Campania

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=111.00, b0=37.00, c0=13.08
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=148.29 \pm 6.21$
$\displaystyle b=35.88 \pm 0.57$
$\displaystyle c=16.74 \pm 0.81$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=12.00, b0=27.00, c0=9.55
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=10.64 \pm 0.81$
$\displaystyle b=40.49 \pm 1.32$
$\displaystyle c=21.16 \pm 1.87$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=83.25, b0=72.00, c0=25.46
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=79.86 \pm 7.61$
$\displaystyle b=73.18 \pm 2.27$
$\displaystyle c=27.76 \pm 3.54$

Emilia-Romagna

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=601.25, b0=27.00, c0=9.55
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=669.36 \pm 23.96$
$\displaystyle b=33.85 \pm 0.66$
$\displaystyle c=22.63 \pm 0.96$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=83.50, b0=24.00, c0=8.49
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=87.83 \pm 2.83$
$\displaystyle b=39.45 \pm 0.70$
$\displaystyle c=26.47 \pm 1.01$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=364.00, b0=65.00, c0=22.98
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=463.00 \pm 47.53$
$\displaystyle b=64.57 \pm 2.18$
$\displaystyle c=26.03 \pm 3.19$

Friuli Venezia Giulia

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=81.00, b0=29.00, c0=10.25
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=87.20 \pm 4.89$
$\displaystyle b=33.83 \pm 0.92$
$\displaystyle c=20.20 \pm 1.32$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=8.38, b0=55.00, c0=19.45
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=7.17 \pm 0.47$
$\displaystyle b=42.38 \pm 1.43$
$\displaystyle c=26.60 \pm 2.06$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=78.25, b0=49.00, c0=17.32
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=44.63 \pm 14.86$
$\displaystyle b=61.89 \pm 11.27$
$\displaystyle c=39.40 \pm 18.18$

Lazio

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=168.75, b0=32.00, c0=11.31
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=173.10 \pm 6.16$
$\displaystyle b=38.77 \pm 0.71$
$\displaystyle c=24.53 \pm 1.03$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=14.75, b0=66.00, c0=23.33
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=11.26 \pm 0.88$
$\displaystyle b=59.37 \pm 2.91$
$\displaystyle c=43.06 \pm 4.90$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=89.75, b0=94.00, c0=33.23
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=77.15 \pm 5.76$
$\displaystyle b=84.63 \pm 6.37$
$\displaystyle c=45.48 \pm 8.05$

Liguria

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=190.88, b0=30.00, c0=10.61
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=187.49 \pm 8.50$
$\displaystyle b=42.38 \pm 1.11$
$\displaystyle c=29.87 \pm 1.63$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=31.00, b0=31.00, c0=10.96
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=28.92 \pm 1.41$
$\displaystyle b=45.28 \pm 1.15$
$\displaystyle c=28.98 \pm 1.67$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=147.25, b0=95.00, c0=33.59
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=139.49 \pm 5.48$
$\displaystyle b=80.51 \pm 2.63$
$\displaystyle c=43.84 \pm 3.64$

Lombardia

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=1575.00, b0=25.00, c0=8.84
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=1680.56 \pm 78.93$
$\displaystyle b=34.52 \pm 1.19$
$\displaystyle c=30.27 \pm 1.83$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=348.00, b0=25.00, c0=8.84
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=376.46 \pm 16.77$
$\displaystyle b=35.95 \pm 0.82$
$\displaystyle c=22.62 \pm 1.18$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=950.25, b0=71.00, c0=25.10
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=761.20 \pm 102.21$
$\displaystyle b=74.93 \pm 11.29$
$\displaystyle c=55.26 \pm 17.05$

Marche

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=149.75, b0=26.00, c0=9.19
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=175.82 \pm 6.99$
$\displaystyle b=30.56 \pm 0.67$
$\displaystyle c=20.66 \pm 0.97$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=23.50, b0=29.00, c0=10.25
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=28.44 \pm 1.54$
$\displaystyle b=35.25 \pm 0.81$
$\displaystyle c=18.38 \pm 1.15$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=164.25, b0=43.00, c0=15.20
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=239.77 \pm 37.60$
$\displaystyle b=44.74 \pm 0.47$
$\displaystyle c=3.66 \pm 0.66$

Molise

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=15.00, b0=30.00, c0=10.61
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=11.00 \pm 1.78$
$\displaystyle b=35.07 \pm 1.93$
$\displaystyle c=14.59 \pm 2.73$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=1.75, b0=24.00, c0=8.49
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=3.18 \pm 0.45$
$\displaystyle b=24.22 \pm 0.13$
$\displaystyle c=1.10 \pm 0.18$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=10.00, b0=81.00, c0=28.64
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=6.37 \pm 0.60$
$\displaystyle b=84.01 \pm 3.59$
$\displaystyle c=30.26 \pm 5.29$

Piemonte

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=605.75, b0=46.00, c0=16.26
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=666.82 \pm 23.16$
$\displaystyle b=44.57 \pm 0.75$
$\displaystyle c=26.35 \pm 1.07$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=79.00, b0=31.00, c0=10.96
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=82.37 \pm 3.32$
$\displaystyle b=48.83 \pm 0.88$
$\displaystyle c=26.69 \pm 1.25$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=515.12, b0=80.00, c0=28.28
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=479.73 \pm 21.22$
$\displaystyle b=77.22 \pm 1.32$
$\displaystyle c=30.55 \pm 2.07$

Puglia

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=108.00, b0=34.00, c0=12.02
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=112.70 \pm 5.03$
$\displaystyle b=38.44 \pm 0.81$
$\displaystyle c=22.16 \pm 1.15$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=12.25, b0=56.00, c0=19.80
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=12.09 \pm 0.85$
$\displaystyle b=45.21 \pm 1.29$
$\displaystyle c=22.48 \pm 1.83$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=97.88, b0=72.00, c0=25.46
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=76.00 \pm 5.22$
$\displaystyle b=91.22 \pm 5.13$
$\displaystyle c=35.33 \pm 6.01$

Sardegna

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=40.00, b0=32.00, c0=11.31
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=43.96 \pm 3.26$
$\displaystyle b=33.38 \pm 1.02$
$\displaystyle c=16.84 \pm 1.44$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=5.00, b0=43.00, c0=15.20
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=3.39 \pm 0.37$
$\displaystyle b=44.44 \pm 1.89$
$\displaystyle c=21.36 \pm 2.68$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=35.75, b0=50.00, c0=17.68
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=22.33 \pm 2.01$
$\displaystyle b=74.91 \pm 3.14$
$\displaystyle c=34.82 \pm 4.93$

Sicilia

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=74.50, b0=30.00, c0=10.61
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=91.94 \pm 4.72$
$\displaystyle b=35.54 \pm 0.84$
$\displaystyle c=20.17 \pm 1.20$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=8.00, b0=32.00, c0=11.31
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=7.66 \pm 0.50$
$\displaystyle b=41.63 \pm 1.03$
$\displaystyle c=19.14 \pm 1.45$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=77.62, b0=61.00, c0=21.57
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=48.74 \pm 6.72$
$\displaystyle b=82.73 \pm 5.97$
$\displaystyle c=33.30 \pm 8.70$

Toscana

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=235.38, b0=37.00, c0=13.08
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=261.79 \pm 10.11$
$\displaystyle b=36.19 \pm 0.68$
$\displaystyle c=21.45 \pm 0.97$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=20.00, b0=45.00, c0=15.91
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=22.65 \pm 1.00$
$\displaystyle b=47.96 \pm 0.94$
$\displaystyle c=26.35 \pm 1.35$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=237.25, b0=57.00, c0=20.15
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=204.68 \pm 15.49$
$\displaystyle b=73.51 \pm 1.49$
$\displaystyle c=23.69 \pm 2.25$

P.A. Trento

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=109.88, b0=19.00, c0=6.72
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=108.76 \pm 6.04$
$\displaystyle b=38.59 \pm 1.05$
$\displaystyle c=23.22 \pm 1.51$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=14.50, b0=52.00, c0=18.38
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=13.11 \pm 0.78$
$\displaystyle b=40.05 \pm 0.95$
$\displaystyle c=19.43 \pm 1.34$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=95.88, b0=63.00, c0=22.27
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=104.79 \pm 15.17$
$\displaystyle b=61.86 \pm 2.32$
$\displaystyle c=19.62 \pm 3.28$

Umbria

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=55.25, b0=30.00, c0=10.61
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=72.16 \pm 2.75$
$\displaystyle b=28.34 \pm 0.32$
$\displaystyle c=10.18 \pm 0.45$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=3.00, b0=32.00, c0=11.31
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=2.49 \pm 0.32$
$\displaystyle b=33.15 \pm 1.47$
$\displaystyle c=13.85 \pm 2.09$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=45.25, b0=34.00, c0=12.02
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=39.52 \pm 3.33$
$\displaystyle b=48.14 \pm 1.25$
$\displaystyle c=18.18 \pm 1.77$

Valle d'Aosta

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=44.00, b0=53.00, c0=18.74
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=35.08 \pm 3.25$
$\displaystyle b=33.40 \pm 1.42$
$\displaystyle c=18.75 \pm 2.02$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=6.00, b0=39.00, c0=13.79
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=6.22 \pm 0.43$
$\displaystyle b=36.58 \pm 0.66$
$\displaystyle c=11.68 \pm 0.93$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=40.00, b0=59.00, c0=20.86
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=41.02 \pm 4.33$
$\displaystyle b=57.07 \pm 1.04$
$\displaystyle c=12.08 \pm 1.47$

Veneto

-> CONFIRMED, guessed p0: a0=435.50, b0=25.00, c0=8.84
CONFIRMED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=466.17 \pm 16.03$
$\displaystyle b=35.65 \pm 0.65$
$\displaystyle c=23.22 \pm 0.94$ 
-> DEATHS, guessed p0: a0=38.00, b0=35.00, c0=12.37
DEATHS CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=36.03 \pm 1.66$
$\displaystyle b=50.28 \pm 1.18$
$\displaystyle c=31.44 \pm 1.72$ 
-> RECOVERED, guessed p0: a0=347.00, b0=59.00, c0=20.86
RECOVERED CURVE NO ERROR
$\displaystyle a=348.84 \pm 17.09$
$\displaystyle b=65.29 \pm 1.07$
$\displaystyle c=26.72 \pm 1.58$